— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
56¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
39¢
icon
34¢
hres
15¢
aifs
3¢
wn2
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F6¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F30¢
72–73°F27¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F0¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,407 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.862.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:11+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape