KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

34%

15%

<1%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 28.4¢Risks 28.45u

WN2NO 71.5¢Risks 71.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.55u · WN2 −71.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:11+00:00	5.1%	54.7%	2.2%	29.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	5.1%	54.7%	2.2%	29.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	5.1%	54.7%	2.3%	29.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	5.1%	54.7%	2.3%	29.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	5.1%	54.7%	2.3%	29.2%	55.7%
2026-10-13T08:03:52+00:00	4.0%	54.7%	2.3%	14.9%	33.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	4.0%	54.7%	2.3%	14.9%	33.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	4.0%	54.7%	2.3%	14.9%	33.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	4.0%	54.7%	2.3%	14.9%	33.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	4.0%	54.7%	2.3%	14.9%	33.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	4.0%	56.3%	0.6%	14.9%	33.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	4.0%	56.3%	0.6%	14.9%	33.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	4.0%	56.3%	0.6%	14.9%	33.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	3.0%	56.3%	0.6%	14.9%	33.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	3.0%	56.3%	0.6%	14.9%	33.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	56%	80.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	78.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	34%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	73.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	70.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	69.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗