— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
64¢
ndfd
56¢
hres
39¢
nbm
24¢
aifs
21¢
icon
13¢
rrfs
9¢
wn2
4¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F12¢
78–79°F24¢
80–81°F29¢
82–83°F20¢
84–85°F8¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-15T04:47:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape