KDFW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

39%

21%

13%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.3¢Risks 34.30u

WN2NO 65.7¢Risks 65.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.70u · WN2 −65.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:47:58+00:00	20.7%	55.6%	12.4%	44.6%	56.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	20.7%	55.6%	18.4%	44.6%	56.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	20.7%	55.6%	18.4%	44.6%	56.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	20.7%	55.6%	18.4%	44.6%	56.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:03+00:00	20.5%	55.6%	18.4%	39.1%	40.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	20.5%	55.6%	18.4%	39.1%	40.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	20.5%	55.6%	18.4%	39.1%	40.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	20.5%	55.6%	18.4%	39.1%	40.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	20.5%	55.6%	18.4%	39.1%	40.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	20.5%	55.6%	10.3%	39.1%	40.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	20.5%	80.3%	10.3%	39.1%	40.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	20.5%	80.3%	10.3%	39.1%	40.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	40.5%	80.3%	10.3%	39.1%	40.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	40.5%	80.3%	10.3%	39.1%	41.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	40.5%	80.3%	10.3%	39.1%	41.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:45+00:00	25.3%	80.3%	14.8%	25.5%	49.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	25.3%	80.3%	13.2%	25.5%	49.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	25.3%	80.3%	13.2%	25.5%	49.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	25.3%	80.3%	13.2%	25.5%	49.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	25.3%	80.3%	13.2%	25.5%	49.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	22.9%	80.3%	13.2%	25.5%	26.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	22.9%	80.3%	13.2%	25.5%	26.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	22.9%	80.3%	13.2%	25.5%	26.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	22.9%	80.3%	13.2%	25.5%	26.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	22.9%	79.4%	8.9%	25.5%	26.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	22.9%	79.4%	8.9%	25.5%	26.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	22.9%	79.4%	8.9%	25.5%	26.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	22.9%	79.4%	8.9%	25.5%	26.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	26.3%	79.4%	8.9%	35.2%	26.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00	24.2%	63.9%	3.5%	19.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	24.2%	63.9%	8.2%	19.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	24.2%	63.9%	8.2%	19.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	24.2%	63.9%	8.2%	19.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	24.2%	63.9%	8.2%	19.8%	18.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00	24.5%	63.9%	8.2%	39.4%	12.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	24.5%	63.9%	8.2%	39.4%	12.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	24.5%	63.9%	8.2%	39.4%	12.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	24.5%	63.9%	8.2%	39.4%	12.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	24.5%	63.9%	8.2%	39.4%	12.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	24.5%	64.4%	4.4%	39.4%	12.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	24.5%	64.4%	4.4%	39.4%	12.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	24.5%	64.4%	4.4%	39.4%	12.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	20.8%	64.2%	4.4%	39.4%	13.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	20.8%	64.2%	4.4%	39.4%	13.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	64%	82.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	80.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	78.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	13%	77.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	76.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗