daily prop · Dallas, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Wed Oct 21

Dallas runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Wed Oct 21

7¢

american +1291 · decimal 13.91

on the tape

87°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 87°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hres		25¢
ndfd		23¢
eps		18¢
nbm		12¢
aifs		10¢
icon		4¢
wn2		3¢
rrfs		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

76–77°F2¢

78–79°F9¢

80–81°F22¢

82–83°F31¢

84–85°F24¢

86–87°F10¢

88–89°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,410 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.692 vs climatology 8.861.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDFW-20261021-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-10-15T16:20:08+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape