KDFW / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

21%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 12.8¢Risks 12.75u

WN2NO 87.2¢Risks 87.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +87.25u · WN2 −87.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:08+00:00	28.3%	23.8%	8.9%	31.4%	29.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	28.3%	23.8%	10.7%	31.4%	29.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	28.3%	23.8%	10.7%	31.4%	29.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	28.3%	23.8%	10.7%	31.4%	29.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	28.3%	23.8%	10.7%	31.4%	29.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	11.8%	23.8%	10.7%	21.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	11.8%	23.8%	10.7%	21.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	11.8%	23.8%	10.7%	21.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	11.8%	23.8%	10.7%	21.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	11.8%	23.8%	11.9%	21.5%	45.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	11.8%	23.8%	11.9%	21.5%	45.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	11.8%	23.8%	11.9%	21.5%	45.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	14.9%	23.8%	11.9%	21.5%	45.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	14.9%	23.8%	11.9%	21.5%	45.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	14.9%	23.8%	11.9%	21.5%	45.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	14.9%	23.8%	11.9%	21.5%	45.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00	11.7%	38.8%	5.2%	21.8%	30.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	11.7%	38.8%	5.2%	21.8%	30.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	11.7%	38.8%	5.2%	21.8%	30.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	11.7%	38.8%	6.6%	21.8%	30.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	11.7%	38.8%	6.6%	21.8%	30.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	11.7%	38.8%	6.6%	21.8%	30.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	13.4%	38.8%	6.6%	21.8%	26.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:39+00:00	13.4%	38.8%	6.6%	21.8%	26.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	13.4%	38.8%	6.6%	21.8%	26.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	13.4%	38.8%	6.6%	21.8%	26.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	13.4%	38.8%	6.6%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	13.4%	38.8%	7.9%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	13.4%	38.8%	7.9%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	13.4%	38.8%	7.9%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	14.3%	38.8%	7.9%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	14.3%	38.8%	7.9%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	14.3%	38.8%	7.9%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	14.3%	38.8%	7.9%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:12+00:00	14.3%	38.8%	7.9%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	14.3%	38.8%	8.7%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	14.3%	38.8%	8.7%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	14.3%	38.8%	8.7%	25.0%	26.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:46+00:00	12.4%	38.8%	8.7%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	12.4%	38.8%	8.7%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	12.4%	38.8%	8.7%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	12.4%	38.8%	8.7%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	12.4%	38.8%	8.7%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	12.4%	44.3%	2.6%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	12.4%	44.3%	2.6%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	12.4%	44.3%	2.6%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	11.9%	44.3%	2.6%	24.2%	19.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	12.0%	44.3%	2.7%	24.2%	19.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	12.0%	31.4%	2.7%	24.2%	19.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	12.0%	31.4%	2.7%	24.2%	19.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	12.0%	31.4%	2.7%	24.2%	19.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	12.0%	31.4%	1.6%	24.2%	19.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	12.0%	31.4%	1.6%	24.2%	19.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	12.0%	31.4%	1.6%	24.2%	19.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	9.9%	31.4%	1.6%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	9.9%	31.4%	1.6%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	9.9%	31.4%	1.6%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	9.9%	31.4%	1.6%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	9.9%	31.4%	1.6%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	9.9%	31.4%	1.4%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	9.9%	31.4%	1.4%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	9.9%	31.4%	1.4%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	9.2%	31.4%	1.4%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	9.2%	31.4%	1.4%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	9.2%	31.4%	1.4%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	7.3%	17.6%	0.9%	18.5%	8.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	7.3%	17.6%	0.9%	18.5%	8.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	7.3%	17.6%	0.4%	18.5%	8.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	7.3%	17.6%	0.4%	18.5%	8.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	7.3%	17.6%	0.4%	18.5%	8.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	7.3%	17.6%	0.4%	18.5%	8.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	8.0%	17.6%	0.4%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	8.0%	17.6%	0.4%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	8.0%	17.6%	0.4%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	8.0%	17.6%	0.4%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	8.0%	17.6%	0.6%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	8.0%	17.6%	0.6%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	8.0%	17.6%	0.6%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	7.7%	17.6%	0.6%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	7.7%	17.6%	0.6%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	7.7%	17.6%	0.6%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	7.7%	17.6%	0.6%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00	7.7%	17.6%	0.6%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	7.7%	17.6%	2.9%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	7.7%	17.6%	2.9%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	7.7%	17.6%	2.9%	17.9%	4.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00	9.6%	17.6%	2.9%	24.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	9.6%	17.6%	2.9%	24.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	9.6%	17.6%	2.9%	24.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	9.6%	17.6%	2.9%	24.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	9.6%	17.6%	2.9%	24.7%	3.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:07+00:00	9.6%	21.4%	0.8%	24.7%	3.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	25%	83.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	81.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	80.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	79.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261021-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Dallas runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗