— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
60¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
54¢
icon
50¢
hres
38¢
aifs
27¢
wn2
15¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F1¢
80–81°F6¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F26¢
86–87°F26¢
88–89°F16¢
90–91°F6¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,312 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.165 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDFW-20261023-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape