KDFW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

50%

38%

27%

15%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

WN2NO 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.50u · WN2 −62.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	33.2%	73.0%	27.2%	42.0%	18.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00	33.2%	71.9%	27.2%	42.0%	18.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	33.2%	71.9%	27.2%	42.0%	18.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	33.2%	71.9%	27.2%	42.0%	18.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	33.2%	71.9%	29.1%	42.0%	18.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	33.2%	71.9%	29.1%	42.0%	18.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	33.2%	71.9%	29.1%	42.0%	18.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	35.1%	71.9%	29.1%	42.0%	69.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:39+00:00	35.1%	71.9%	29.1%	42.0%	69.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	35.1%	71.9%	29.1%	42.0%	69.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	35.1%	71.9%	29.1%	42.0%	69.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	35.1%	71.9%	29.1%	53.1%	69.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	35.1%	71.9%	37.7%	53.1%	69.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	35.1%	71.9%	37.7%	53.1%	69.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	35.1%	71.9%	37.7%	53.1%	69.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	37.7%	71.9%	37.7%	53.1%	69.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	37.7%	71.9%	37.7%	53.1%	69.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	37.7%	71.9%	37.7%	53.1%	69.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	37.7%	71.9%	37.7%	53.1%	69.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	27.2%	60.2%	19.1%	47.9%	57.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	27.2%	60.2%	19.1%	47.9%	57.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	27.2%	60.2%	17.1%	47.9%	57.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	27.2%	60.2%	17.1%	47.9%	57.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	27.2%	60.2%	17.1%	47.9%	57.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	27.2%	60.2%	17.1%	47.9%	57.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	26.6%	60.2%	17.1%	37.8%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	26.6%	60.2%	17.1%	37.8%	50.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	26.6%	60.2%	17.1%	37.8%	50.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	26.6%	60.2%	17.1%	37.8%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	26.6%	60.2%	14.8%	37.8%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	26.6%	60.2%	14.8%	37.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	26.6%	60.2%	14.8%	37.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	27.2%	60.2%	14.8%	37.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	27.2%	60.2%	14.8%	37.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	27.2%	60.2%	14.8%	37.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	27.2%	60.2%	14.8%	37.8%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	86.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	50%	85.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	83.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	82.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	81.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗