— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
75¢
ndfd
72¢
eps
64¢
icon
59¢
hres
42¢
aifs
32¢
wn2
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F6¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F26¢
86–87°F26¢
88–89°F16¢
90–91°F6¢
92–93°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,263 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.483 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDFW-20261024-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape