KDFW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

59%

42%

32%

24%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.1¢Risks 44.15u

WN2NO 55.9¢Risks 55.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.85u · WN2 −55.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:47+00:00	33.2%	77.3%	33.0%	39.6%	9.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	33.2%	77.3%	33.0%	39.6%	9.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	33.2%	77.3%	33.0%	39.6%	9.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	33.2%	77.3%	33.0%	39.6%	9.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	33.2%	77.3%	33.0%	39.6%	9.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:27+00:00	27.1%	66.0%	21.7%	36.7%	53.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	27.1%	66.0%	28.5%	36.7%	53.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	27.1%	66.0%	28.5%	36.7%	53.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	27.1%	66.0%	28.5%	36.7%	53.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	27.1%	66.0%	28.5%	36.7%	53.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00	29.6%	66.0%	28.5%	41.6%	58.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	29.6%	66.0%	28.5%	41.6%	58.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	29.6%	66.0%	28.5%	41.6%	58.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	29.6%	66.0%	28.5%	41.6%	58.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	29.6%	66.0%	28.5%	41.6%	58.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	29.6%	64.7%	24.0%	41.6%	58.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	29.6%	64.7%	24.0%	41.6%	58.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	29.6%	64.7%	24.0%	41.6%	58.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	31.5%	64.3%	24.0%	41.6%	58.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	31.5%	64.3%	24.0%	41.6%	58.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	72%	89.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	86.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	87.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	84.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	82.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	82.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261024-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Dallas runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗