— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
55¢
eps
40¢
hres
31¢
wn2
21¢
aifs
14¢
icon
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F13¢
80–81°F18¢
82–83°F19¢
84–85°F16¢
86–87°F11¢
88–89°F6¢
90–91°F3¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,335 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.605 vs climatology 8.757.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDFW-20261026-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape