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KDFW / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
40%
HRES
31%
WN2
21%
AIFS
14%
ICON
5%
Consensus
25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 22.4¢Risks 22.35u
VS
ICONNO 77.6¢Risks 77.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +77.65u · ICON −77.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS HRES: 31.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00IFS HRES: 31.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 31.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 31.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 31.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:0013.7%40.1%21.1%31.0%4.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0013.7%40.1%21.1%31.0%4.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0013.7%40.1%21.1%31.0%4.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0013.7%40.1%21.1%31.0%4.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:0013.7%40.1%21.1%31.0%4.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%86.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble40%84.5°F4.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES31%82.3°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 221%81.1°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single14%79.2°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON5%68.6°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261026-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗