daily prop · Des Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Mon Sep 21

Des Moines high ≥ 60°F · Mon Sep 21

YES

settled · observed 62

golden 15d out on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 60°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop went golden 15.2 days before settlement.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		100¢
eps		100¢
aifs		96¢
rrfs		92¢
hres		89¢
now		84¢
hrrr		73¢
ndfd		59¢
nbm		55¢
icon		45¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KDSM-20260921-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00 · settled 2026-09-22T14:01:06+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape