KDSM / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 21 · 10:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

96%

89%

45%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.7¢Risks 72.65u

ICONNO 27.3¢Risks 27.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.35u · ICON −27.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T10:06:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	100.0%	84.0%	97.0%
2026-09-19T03:54:14+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	100.0%	84.0%	97.0%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	100.0%	84.0%	77.0%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	100.0%	84.0%	77.0%
2026-09-19T06:09:29+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	100.0%	84.0%	77.0%
2026-09-19T06:54:38+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	100.0%	84.0%	77.0%
2026-09-19T07:39:58+00:00	87.3%	99.8%	100.0%	85.1%	77.0%
2026-09-19T08:25:27+00:00	87.3%	99.8%	100.0%	85.1%	77.0%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	87.3%	99.8%	100.0%	85.1%	77.0%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	87.3%	99.8%	100.0%	85.1%	77.0%
2026-09-19T10:40:47+00:00	87.3%	99.8%	100.0%	85.1%	77.0%
2026-09-19T11:25:56+00:00	87.3%	99.3%	100.0%	85.1%	77.0%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	87.3%	99.3%	100.0%	85.1%	77.0%
2026-09-19T12:56:09+00:00	87.3%	99.3%	100.0%	85.1%	77.0%
2026-09-19T13:41:15+00:00	85.7%	99.3%	100.0%	85.1%	77.0%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	85.7%	99.3%	100.0%	85.1%	77.8%
2026-09-20T15:18:52+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	100.0%	86.9%	71.4%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	100.0%	86.9%	71.4%
2026-09-20T16:49:13+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	100.0%	86.9%	65.4%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	100.0%	86.9%	65.4%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	100.0%	86.9%	65.4%
2026-09-20T19:04:31+00:00	94.9%	99.6%	100.0%	86.9%	65.4%
2026-09-20T19:49:37+00:00	93.8%	99.6%	100.0%	86.9%	65.4%
2026-09-20T20:34:42+00:00	93.8%	99.6%	100.0%	86.9%	65.4%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	93.8%	99.6%	100.0%	86.9%	65.4%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	93.8%	99.6%	100.0%	86.9%	65.4%
2026-09-20T22:49:59+00:00	93.8%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	65.4%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	93.8%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	65.4%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	93.8%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	65.4%
2026-09-21T01:05:24+00:00	93.8%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	65.4%
2026-09-21T01:50:30+00:00	92.5%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	65.4%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	92.5%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	65.4%
2026-09-21T03:20:49+00:00	92.5%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	65.4%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	92.5%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	65.4%
2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00	92.5%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	45.3%
2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00	92.5%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	45.3%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	92.5%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	45.3%
2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00	92.5%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	45.3%
2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00	95.9%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	45.3%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	95.9%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	45.3%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	95.9%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	45.3%
2026-09-21T10:06:51+00:00	95.9%	99.6%	100.0%	89.0%	45.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	73.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	>99%	69.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-20 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	96%	64.8°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.0017
IFS HRES	89%	64.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	0.0121
NWS forecast	59%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 02:00	0.1681
National Blend	55%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.2070
ICON	45%	59.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	0.2992

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20260921-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 60°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗