daily prop · Des Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Sun Oct 18

Des Moines high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

YES

settled · observed 67

longshot hit whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 66°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 0¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

rrfs		81¢
aifs		73¢
wn2		71¢
ndfd		59¢
eps		43¢
hres		38¢
nbm		25¢
icon		10¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-12T04:01:26+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:38:50+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape