KDSM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

71%

43%

38%

10%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.5¢Risks 41.50u

ICONNO 58.5¢Risks 58.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.50u · ICON −58.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:26+00:00	38.1%	44.5%	46.8%	40.0%	65.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00	38.1%	44.5%	46.8%	40.0%	65.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00	38.1%	44.5%	46.0%	40.0%	65.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	38.1%	44.5%	46.0%	40.0%	65.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	38.1%	44.5%	46.0%	40.0%	65.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:23+00:00	26.7%	44.5%	46.0%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	26.7%	44.5%	46.0%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	26.7%	44.5%	46.0%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	26.7%	44.5%	46.0%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	26.7%	44.5%	46.0%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:32+00:00	26.7%	44.5%	51.8%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	26.7%	45.1%	51.8%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	26.7%	45.1%	51.8%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	66.8%	45.1%	51.8%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	66.8%	45.2%	51.7%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:17+00:00	66.8%	45.2%	51.7%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	66.8%	47.6%	51.7%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	66.8%	47.6%	57.8%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	66.8%	47.6%	57.8%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	66.8%	47.6%	57.8%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	66.8%	47.6%	57.8%	43.9%	84.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	69.4%	47.6%	57.8%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	69.4%	47.6%	57.8%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	69.4%	47.6%	57.8%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	69.4%	47.6%	57.8%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	69.4%	47.6%	66.1%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	69.4%	47.6%	66.1%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	69.4%	47.6%	66.1%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	69.4%	47.6%	66.1%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	68.1%	47.6%	66.1%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	68.1%	47.6%	66.1%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	68.1%	47.6%	66.1%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-13T04:15:57+00:00	68.1%	47.6%	66.1%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	68.1%	47.6%	64.5%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	68.1%	47.6%	64.5%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	68.1%	47.6%	64.5%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	68.1%	47.6%	64.5%	57.9%	75.3%
2026-10-13T08:03:31+00:00	56.5%	47.6%	64.5%	43.8%	67.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	56.5%	47.6%	64.5%	43.8%	67.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	56.5%	47.6%	64.5%	43.8%	67.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	56.5%	47.6%	64.5%	43.8%	67.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	56.5%	63.4%	61.6%	43.8%	67.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:38+00:00	56.5%	63.4%	61.6%	43.8%	67.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	56.5%	63.4%	61.6%	43.8%	67.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	56.5%	63.4%	61.6%	43.8%	67.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	61.9%	63.4%	61.5%	43.8%	67.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	61.9%	65.3%	61.5%	43.8%	67.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:19+00:00	66.8%	50.0%	55.3%	37.4%	53.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	66.8%	50.0%	55.3%	37.4%	53.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	66.8%	50.0%	55.3%	37.4%	53.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	66.8%	50.0%	50.0%	37.4%	53.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	66.8%	50.0%	50.0%	37.4%	53.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	66.8%	50.0%	50.0%	37.4%	53.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	66.0%	50.0%	50.0%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	66.0%	50.0%	50.0%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	66.0%	50.0%	50.0%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	66.0%	50.0%	50.0%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	66.0%	50.0%	50.0%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	66.0%	50.0%	52.1%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	66.0%	50.0%	52.1%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	66.0%	50.0%	52.1%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	52.1%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	52.1%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	52.1%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	52.1%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	52.1%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	60.6%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	60.6%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	60.6%	33.0%	51.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:00	72.0%	50.0%	60.6%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	72.0%	50.0%	60.6%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	72.0%	50.0%	60.6%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	72.0%	50.0%	60.6%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	72.0%	50.0%	60.6%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	72.0%	50.0%	59.4%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	72.0%	52.5%	59.4%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	72.0%	52.5%	59.4%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	70.4%	52.5%	59.4%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	70.4%	52.5%	59.4%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:11+00:00	70.4%	45.1%	59.4%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	70.4%	45.1%	59.4%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	70.4%	45.1%	62.8%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	70.4%	45.1%	62.8%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	70.4%	45.1%	62.8%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	70.4%	45.1%	62.8%	39.4%	43.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	62.8%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	62.8%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	62.8%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	62.8%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	61.7%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	61.7%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	61.7%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	61.7%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	61.7%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	61.7%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	61.7%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:11+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	61.7%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	67.2%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	67.2%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	69.6%	45.1%	67.2%	39.4%	41.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	68.8%	45.1%	67.2%	39.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	68.8%	45.1%	67.2%	39.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	68.8%	45.1%	67.2%	39.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	68.8%	45.1%	67.2%	39.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	68.8%	45.1%	67.2%	39.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	68.8%	50.0%	60.2%	39.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	68.8%	50.0%	60.2%	39.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	68.8%	50.0%	60.2%	39.4%	23.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	68.0%	50.0%	60.2%	38.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	68.0%	50.0%	60.2%	38.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	68.0%	45.4%	60.2%	38.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	68.0%	45.4%	60.2%	38.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	68.0%	45.4%	60.2%	38.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	68.0%	45.4%	65.1%	38.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	68.0%	45.4%	65.1%	38.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	68.0%	45.4%	65.1%	38.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	65.1%	38.5%	14.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	65.1%	38.5%	14.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	65.1%	38.5%	14.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	65.1%	38.5%	14.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	65.1%	43.2%	14.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	61.4%	43.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	61.4%	43.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	61.4%	43.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	61.4%	43.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	61.4%	43.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	61.4%	43.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	61.4%	43.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:48+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	61.4%	43.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	62.6%	43.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	62.6%	43.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	70.6%	45.4%	62.6%	43.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:30+00:00	70.3%	45.4%	62.6%	42.5%	11.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	70.3%	45.4%	62.6%	42.5%	11.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:38+00:00	70.3%	45.4%	62.6%	42.5%	11.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	70.3%	45.4%	62.6%	42.5%	11.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	70.3%	45.4%	62.6%	42.5%	11.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	70.3%	50.0%	64.7%	42.5%	11.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	70.3%	50.0%	64.7%	42.5%	11.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	70.3%	50.0%	64.7%	42.5%	11.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	67.6%	50.0%	64.7%	42.5%	11.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	67.6%	50.0%	64.7%	42.5%	11.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:03+00:00	72.9%	42.7%	54.1%	38.4%	10.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	72.9%	42.7%	70.9%	38.4%	10.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	72.9%	42.7%	70.9%	38.4%	10.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	72.9%	42.7%	70.9%	38.4%	10.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	72.9%	42.7%	70.9%	38.4%	10.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	67.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0734
WeatherNext 2	71%	67.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0847
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS Ensemble	43%	64.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3283
IFS HRES	38%	64.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3795
National Blend	25%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.5595
ICON	10%	61.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.8082

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗