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daily prop · Des Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Mon Oct 19

Des Moines high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

53¢
american -114 · decimal 1.88
on the tape
The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.
Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 68°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢10/0410/1610/19 06:47
— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price
rrfs
91¢
hrrr
84¢
wn2
82¢
aifs
79¢
ndfd
59¢
nbm
41¢
eps
40¢
hres
35¢
icon
20¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F0¢
64–65°F7¢
66–67°F33¢
68–69°F42¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F2¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-14T15:12:19+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape