KDSM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

79%

40%

35%

20%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 51.1¢Risks 51.10u

ICONNO 48.9¢Risks 48.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +48.90u · ICON −48.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:19+00:00	61.1%	44.5%	57.7%	51.4%	31.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	61.1%	44.5%	57.7%	51.4%	31.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	61.1%	44.5%	57.7%	51.4%	31.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	61.1%	44.5%	52.9%	51.4%	31.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	61.1%	44.5%	52.9%	51.4%	31.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	61.1%	44.5%	52.9%	51.4%	31.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	55.6%	44.5%	52.9%	35.8%	61.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	55.6%	44.5%	52.9%	35.8%	61.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	55.6%	44.5%	52.9%	35.8%	61.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	55.6%	44.5%	52.9%	35.8%	61.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	55.6%	44.5%	52.9%	35.8%	61.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	55.6%	44.5%	51.0%	35.8%	61.9%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	55.6%	44.5%	51.0%	35.8%	61.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	55.6%	44.5%	51.0%	35.8%	61.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	61.1%	44.5%	51.0%	35.8%	61.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	61.1%	44.5%	51.0%	35.8%	61.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	61.1%	44.5%	51.0%	35.8%	61.9%
2026-10-16T04:24:11+00:00	71.4%	34.2%	55.3%	33.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	71.4%	34.2%	64.7%	33.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	71.4%	34.2%	64.7%	33.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	71.4%	34.2%	64.7%	33.7%	18.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	72.0%	34.2%	64.7%	33.7%	9.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	72.0%	34.2%	64.7%	33.7%	9.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	72.0%	34.2%	64.7%	33.7%	9.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	72.0%	34.2%	64.7%	33.7%	9.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	72.0%	34.2%	64.7%	33.7%	9.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	72.0%	34.6%	55.9%	33.7%	9.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	72.0%	34.6%	55.9%	33.7%	9.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	72.0%	34.6%	55.9%	33.7%	9.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	72.8%	34.6%	55.9%	25.1%	9.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	72.8%	34.6%	55.9%	25.1%	9.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	72.8%	29.8%	55.9%	25.1%	9.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	72.8%	29.7%	55.9%	25.1%	9.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	72.8%	29.7%	55.9%	25.1%	9.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	72.8%	29.7%	65.0%	25.1%	9.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	72.8%	29.7%	65.0%	25.1%	9.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	72.8%	29.7%	65.0%	25.1%	9.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	71.3%	29.7%	65.0%	25.1%	23.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	71.3%	29.7%	65.0%	25.1%	23.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	71.3%	29.7%	65.0%	25.1%	23.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	71.3%	29.7%	65.0%	25.1%	23.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	71.3%	29.7%	65.0%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	71.3%	29.7%	61.7%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	71.3%	29.7%	61.7%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	71.3%	29.7%	61.7%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	74.4%	29.7%	61.7%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	74.4%	29.7%	61.7%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	74.4%	29.7%	61.7%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	74.4%	29.7%	61.7%	28.8%	23.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:03+00:00	74.7%	29.6%	60.2%	33.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	74.7%	29.6%	81.7%	33.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	74.7%	29.6%	81.7%	33.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	74.7%	29.6%	81.7%	33.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	74.7%	29.6%	81.7%	33.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00	78.4%	29.6%	81.7%	44.7%	18.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	78.4%	29.6%	81.7%	44.7%	18.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	78.4%	29.6%	81.7%	44.7%	18.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	78.4%	29.6%	81.7%	44.7%	18.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	78.4%	39.7%	76.5%	44.7%	18.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	78.4%	39.7%	76.5%	44.7%	18.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:33+00:00	78.4%	39.7%	76.5%	44.7%	18.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	78.4%	39.7%	76.5%	44.7%	18.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	64.8%	39.9%	76.5%	44.6%	19.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00	79.2%	40.0%	66.0%	35.3%	19.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	79.2%	40.0%	82.3%	35.3%	19.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	79.2%	40.0%	82.3%	35.3%	19.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	79.2%	40.0%	82.3%	35.3%	19.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	70.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	70.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	66.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	66.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	20%	64.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗