— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
65¢
aifs
63¢
nbm
55¢
wn2
53¢
hres
32¢
eps
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F5¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F29¢
74–75°F29¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F5¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDSM-20261021-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape