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KDSM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
65%
AIFS
63%
WN2
53%
HRES
32%
EPS
24%
Consensus
45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 44.4¢Risks 44.40u
VS
EPSNO 55.6¢Risks 55.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +55.60u · EPS −55.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00AIFS Single: 68.5% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00AIFS Single: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00AIFS Single: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00AIFS Single: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.8% · 2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.8% · 2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.8% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.8% · 2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.7% · 2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.7% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.7% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.2% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00ICON: 24.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00ICON: 65.3% · 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:0010-14 11:2010-14 19:4310-15 03:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:0068.5%25.5%67.8%56.3%24.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:0068.5%25.5%67.8%56.3%24.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:0068.5%25.5%67.8%56.3%24.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:0074.5%25.5%67.8%56.3%24.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:0074.5%25.5%67.7%56.3%25.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:0074.5%23.5%67.7%56.3%25.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:0074.5%23.5%67.7%56.3%25.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:0074.5%23.5%67.7%56.3%25.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:0074.5%23.5%65.5%56.3%25.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:0074.5%23.5%65.5%56.3%25.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:0074.5%23.5%65.5%56.3%25.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:0055.0%23.5%65.5%31.8%65.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:0055.0%23.5%65.5%31.8%65.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:0055.0%23.5%65.5%31.8%65.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:0055.0%23.5%65.5%31.8%65.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:0055.0%23.5%65.5%31.8%65.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:0055.0%23.5%53.2%31.8%65.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:0055.0%23.5%53.2%31.8%65.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:0055.0%23.5%53.2%31.8%65.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:0063.2%23.5%53.2%31.8%65.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:0063.2%23.5%53.2%31.8%65.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:0063.2%23.5%53.2%31.8%65.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON65%77.4°F9.9°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
AIFS Single63%75.4°F5.6°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
National Blend55%74.0°F4.4°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 253%73.9°F5.0°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS HRES32%70.5°F6.3°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble24%70.4°F4.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 74°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗