daily prop · Des Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Wed Oct 21

Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 21

12¢

american +769 · decimal 8.69

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		53¢
wn2		50¢
rrfs		48¢
hres		19¢
icon		16¢
ndfd		13¢
eps		12¢
hrrr		7¢
nbm		2¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

66–67°F1¢

68–69°F5¢

70–71°F16¢

72–73°F29¢

74–75°F29¢

76–77°F16¢

78–79°F5¢

80–81°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDSM-20261021-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-14T10:33:22+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape