KDSM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

50%

19%

16%

12%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.6¢Risks 32.55u

EPSNO 67.5¢Risks 67.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.45u · EPS −67.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:22+00:00	47.9%	18.2%	38.3%	37.6%	16.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:51+00:00	47.9%	8.2%	44.4%	37.6%	16.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	47.9%	8.2%	44.4%	37.6%	16.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	47.9%	8.2%	44.4%	37.6%	16.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	55.0%	8.2%	44.4%	37.6%	16.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	55.0%	8.2%	44.4%	37.6%	16.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:20+00:00	55.0%	7.8%	44.4%	37.6%	16.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	55.0%	7.8%	44.4%	37.6%	16.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	55.0%	7.8%	44.4%	37.6%	16.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	55.0%	7.8%	42.1%	37.6%	16.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	55.0%	7.8%	42.1%	37.6%	16.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	55.0%	7.8%	42.1%	37.6%	16.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	34.1%	7.8%	42.1%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	34.1%	7.8%	42.1%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	34.1%	7.8%	42.1%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	34.1%	7.8%	42.1%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	34.1%	7.8%	42.1%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	34.1%	7.8%	30.2%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	34.1%	7.8%	30.2%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	34.1%	7.8%	30.2%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	42.2%	7.8%	30.2%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	42.2%	7.8%	30.2%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	42.2%	7.8%	30.2%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	42.2%	7.8%	30.2%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	42.2%	7.8%	30.2%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	42.2%	7.8%	36.7%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	42.2%	7.8%	36.7%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	42.2%	7.8%	36.7%	17.2%	53.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:00	46.3%	7.8%	36.7%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	46.3%	7.8%	36.7%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	46.3%	7.8%	36.7%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	46.3%	7.8%	36.7%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	46.3%	7.8%	36.7%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	46.3%	7.8%	27.4%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	46.3%	4.4%	27.4%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	46.3%	4.4%	27.4%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	27.6%	4.5%	27.4%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	27.6%	4.5%	27.4%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:12+00:00	27.6%	3.5%	27.4%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	27.6%	3.5%	27.4%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	27.6%	3.5%	33.4%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	27.6%	3.5%	33.4%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	27.6%	3.5%	33.4%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	27.6%	3.5%	33.4%	26.2%	52.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	35.5%	3.5%	33.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	35.5%	3.5%	33.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	35.5%	3.5%	33.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	35.5%	3.5%	33.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	35.5%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	35.5%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	35.5%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	33.5%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	33.5%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	33.5%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	33.5%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-16T04:24:12+00:00	33.5%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	33.5%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	33.5%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	33.5%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	46.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	32.9%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	39.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	32.9%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	39.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	32.9%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	39.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	32.9%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	39.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	32.9%	3.5%	42.4%	27.2%	39.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	32.9%	3.8%	37.6%	27.2%	39.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	32.9%	3.8%	37.6%	27.2%	39.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	32.9%	3.8%	37.6%	27.2%	39.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	30.0%	3.8%	37.6%	12.0%	39.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	30.0%	3.8%	37.6%	12.0%	39.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	30.0%	3.5%	37.6%	12.0%	39.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	30.0%	3.5%	37.6%	12.0%	39.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	30.0%	3.5%	37.6%	12.0%	39.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	30.0%	3.5%	50.0%	12.0%	39.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	30.0%	3.5%	50.0%	12.0%	39.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	30.0%	3.5%	50.0%	12.0%	39.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	31.4%	3.5%	50.0%	12.0%	29.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	31.4%	3.5%	50.0%	12.0%	29.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	31.4%	3.5%	50.0%	12.0%	29.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	31.4%	3.5%	50.0%	12.0%	29.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	31.4%	3.5%	50.0%	21.3%	29.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	31.4%	3.5%	42.3%	21.3%	29.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	31.4%	3.5%	42.3%	21.3%	29.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	31.4%	3.5%	42.3%	21.3%	29.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	34.3%	3.5%	42.3%	21.3%	29.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	34.3%	3.5%	42.3%	21.3%	29.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	34.3%	3.5%	42.3%	21.3%	29.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	34.3%	3.5%	42.3%	21.3%	29.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:50+00:00	34.3%	3.5%	42.3%	21.3%	29.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	34.3%	3.5%	46.1%	21.3%	29.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	34.3%	3.5%	46.1%	21.3%	29.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	34.3%	3.5%	46.1%	21.3%	29.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:30+00:00	41.4%	3.5%	46.1%	18.9%	19.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	41.4%	3.5%	46.1%	18.9%	19.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:38+00:00	41.4%	3.5%	46.1%	18.9%	19.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	41.4%	3.5%	46.1%	18.9%	19.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	41.4%	3.5%	46.1%	18.9%	19.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	41.4%	5.3%	39.4%	18.9%	19.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	41.4%	5.3%	39.4%	18.9%	19.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	41.4%	5.3%	39.4%	18.9%	19.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	36.3%	5.3%	39.4%	18.9%	19.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	36.4%	5.3%	39.4%	18.9%	19.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:46+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	39.4%	18.9%	19.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	39.4%	18.9%	19.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	33.4%	18.9%	19.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	33.4%	18.9%	19.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	33.4%	18.9%	19.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	33.4%	18.9%	19.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	42.2%	4.3%	33.4%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	42.2%	4.3%	33.4%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	42.2%	4.3%	33.4%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	42.2%	4.3%	33.4%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	42.2%	4.3%	21.8%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	42.2%	4.3%	21.8%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	42.2%	4.3%	21.8%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	42.2%	4.3%	21.8%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	21.8%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	21.8%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	21.8%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:03+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	21.8%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	36.4%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	36.4%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	36.4%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	36.4%	4.3%	36.4%	17.9%	14.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00	45.4%	4.3%	36.4%	12.7%	7.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	45.4%	4.3%	36.4%	12.7%	7.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	45.4%	4.3%	36.4%	12.7%	7.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	45.4%	4.3%	36.4%	12.7%	7.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	45.4%	5.1%	24.7%	12.7%	7.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	45.4%	5.1%	24.7%	12.7%	7.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:33+00:00	45.4%	5.1%	24.7%	12.7%	7.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	45.4%	5.1%	24.7%	12.7%	7.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	38.0%	5.7%	24.7%	12.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:49+00:00	38.0%	5.7%	24.7%	12.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	38.0%	5.2%	24.7%	12.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	38.0%	5.2%	24.7%	12.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	38.0%	5.2%	17.9%	12.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	38.0%	5.2%	17.9%	12.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	38.0%	5.2%	17.9%	12.6%	7.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	42.6%	5.2%	17.9%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	42.6%	5.2%	17.9%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	42.6%	5.2%	17.9%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	42.6%	5.2%	17.9%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	42.6%	5.2%	17.9%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	42.6%	5.2%	26.7%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	42.6%	5.2%	26.7%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	42.6%	5.2%	26.7%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	45.3%	5.2%	26.7%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	45.3%	5.2%	26.7%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	45.3%	5.2%	26.7%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	45.3%	5.2%	26.7%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00	45.3%	5.2%	26.7%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	45.3%	5.2%	44.1%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	45.3%	5.2%	44.1%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	45.3%	5.2%	44.1%	13.6%	13.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00	48.0%	5.2%	44.1%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	48.0%	5.2%	44.1%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	48.0%	5.2%	44.1%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	48.0%	5.2%	44.1%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00	48.0%	5.2%	44.1%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00	48.0%	8.6%	37.4%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	48.0%	8.6%	37.4%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	48.0%	8.6%	37.4%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	43.2%	8.6%	37.4%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	43.1%	8.6%	37.4%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	43.1%	9.1%	37.4%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	43.1%	9.1%	37.4%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	43.1%	9.1%	37.4%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	43.1%	9.1%	29.2%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	43.1%	9.1%	29.2%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	43.1%	9.1%	29.2%	19.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	46.1%	9.1%	29.2%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	46.1%	9.1%	29.2%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	46.1%	9.1%	29.2%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	46.1%	9.1%	29.2%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	46.1%	9.1%	29.2%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	46.1%	9.1%	33.7%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	46.1%	9.1%	33.7%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	46.1%	9.1%	33.7%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	33.7%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	33.7%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	33.7%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	33.7%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	33.7%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	50.0%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	50.0%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	50.0%	9.1%	50.0%	14.2%	11.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00	53.0%	9.1%	50.0%	14.2%	15.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	53.0%	9.1%	50.0%	14.2%	15.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	53.0%	9.1%	50.0%	14.2%	15.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	53.0%	9.1%	50.0%	14.2%	15.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00	53.0%	12.1%	50.0%	18.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	53.0%	12.1%	50.0%	18.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	53.0%	12.1%	50.0%	18.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	53.0%	12.1%	50.0%	18.7%	15.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	53%	76.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	76.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	73.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	72.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	71.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗