— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
65¢
wn2
56¢
ndfd
54¢
icon
30¢
nbm
23¢
hres
19¢
eps
10¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F14¢
74–75°F24¢
76–77°F26¢
78–79°F18¢
80–81°F8¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDSM-20261022-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-17T15:24:46+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape