KDSM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

56%

30%

19%

10%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.6¢Risks 37.60u

EPSNO 62.4¢Risks 62.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.40u · EPS −62.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:46+00:00	65.7%	10.2%	60.6%	31.4%	28.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	65.7%	10.2%	60.6%	31.4%	28.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	65.7%	10.2%	69.5%	31.4%	28.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	65.7%	10.2%	69.5%	31.4%	28.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	65.7%	10.2%	69.5%	31.4%	28.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	65.7%	10.2%	69.5%	31.4%	28.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	63.4%	10.2%	69.5%	21.3%	19.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	63.4%	10.2%	69.5%	21.3%	19.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	63.4%	10.2%	69.5%	21.3%	19.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	63.4%	10.2%	69.5%	21.3%	19.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	63.4%	10.2%	53.9%	21.3%	19.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	63.4%	10.2%	53.9%	21.3%	19.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	63.4%	10.2%	53.9%	21.3%	19.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	63.4%	10.2%	53.9%	21.3%	19.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	67.2%	10.2%	53.9%	21.3%	19.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	67.2%	10.2%	53.9%	21.3%	19.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	67.2%	10.2%	53.9%	21.3%	19.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:49+00:00	63.6%	9.3%	58.5%	23.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	63.6%	9.9%	58.5%	23.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	63.6%	9.9%	58.5%	23.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	63.6%	9.9%	54.3%	23.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	63.6%	9.9%	54.3%	23.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	63.6%	9.9%	54.3%	23.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	62.0%	9.9%	54.3%	18.9%	30.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	62.0%	9.9%	54.3%	18.9%	30.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	62.0%	9.9%	54.3%	18.9%	30.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	62.0%	9.9%	54.3%	18.9%	30.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	62.0%	9.9%	54.3%	18.9%	30.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	62.0%	9.9%	56.4%	18.9%	30.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	62.0%	9.9%	56.4%	18.9%	30.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	62.0%	9.9%	56.4%	18.9%	30.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	65.3%	9.9%	56.4%	18.9%	30.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	65.3%	9.9%	56.4%	18.9%	30.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	65.3%	9.9%	56.4%	18.9%	30.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	65.3%	9.9%	56.4%	18.9%	30.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	78.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	77.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	30%	74.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	74.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	72.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	72.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗