— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
80¢
icon
72¢
hres
60¢
wn2
56¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
47¢
aifs
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F9¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDSM-20261025-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape