KDSM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

72%

60%

56%

23%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.9¢Risks 51.85u

AIFSNO 48.1¢Risks 48.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.15u · AIFS −48.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:50+00:00	26.6%	52.4%	74.1%	34.3%	69.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	26.6%	52.4%	46.9%	34.3%	69.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	26.6%	52.4%	46.9%	34.3%	69.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	26.6%	52.4%	46.9%	34.3%	69.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00	77.6%	52.4%	46.9%	74.3%	83.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	77.6%	52.4%	46.9%	74.3%	83.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	77.6%	52.4%	46.9%	74.3%	83.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	77.6%	52.4%	46.9%	74.3%	83.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00	77.6%	52.4%	46.9%	74.3%	83.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00	77.6%	55.1%	58.5%	74.3%	83.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	77.6%	55.1%	58.5%	74.3%	83.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	77.6%	55.1%	58.5%	74.3%	83.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	65.1%	55.1%	58.5%	74.3%	83.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	65.1%	55.1%	58.5%	74.3%	83.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00	23.5%	55.8%	43.2%	76.2%	85.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	23.5%	55.8%	43.2%	76.2%	85.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	23.5%	55.8%	27.4%	76.2%	85.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	23.5%	55.8%	27.4%	76.2%	85.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	23.5%	55.8%	27.4%	76.2%	85.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00	23.3%	55.8%	27.4%	76.2%	72.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	23.3%	55.8%	27.4%	76.2%	72.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	23.3%	55.8%	27.4%	76.2%	72.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	23.3%	55.8%	27.4%	76.2%	72.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00	23.3%	80.4%	55.8%	59.6%	72.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	23.3%	80.4%	55.8%	59.6%	72.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	23.3%	80.4%	55.8%	59.6%	72.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	23.3%	80.4%	55.8%	59.6%	72.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	23.3%	80.4%	55.8%	59.6%	72.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	74.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	71.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	71.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	70.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	66.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗