daily prop · Des Moines, IA · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Sun Oct 25

Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 25

22¢

american +345 · decimal 4.45

on the tape

75°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 75°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		47¢
eps		39¢
hres		33¢
ndfd		25¢
nbm		25¢
wn2		20¢
aifs		6¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F2¢

64–65°F5¢

66–67°F10¢

68–69°F15¢

70–71°F19¢

72–73°F19¢

74–75°F15¢

76–77°F9¢

78–79°F4¢

80–81°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDSM-20261025-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape