KDSM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

39%

33%

20%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.8¢Risks 26.80u

AIFSNO 73.2¢Risks 73.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.20u · AIFS −73.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:20+00:00	27.7%	24.7%	58.0%	32.6%	11.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	27.7%	24.7%	58.0%	32.6%	11.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	27.7%	24.7%	58.0%	32.6%	11.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	27.7%	24.7%	58.0%	32.6%	11.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	27.7%	23.0%	55.4%	32.6%	11.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	27.7%	23.0%	55.4%	32.6%	11.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:33+00:00	27.7%	23.0%	55.4%	32.6%	11.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	27.7%	23.0%	55.4%	32.6%	11.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	1.4%	23.0%	55.4%	32.6%	11.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:50+00:00	1.4%	23.0%	55.4%	32.6%	11.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	1.4%	22.7%	55.4%	32.6%	11.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	1.4%	22.7%	55.4%	32.6%	11.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	1.4%	22.7%	57.8%	32.6%	11.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	1.4%	22.7%	57.8%	32.6%	11.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	1.4%	22.7%	57.8%	32.6%	11.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	21.2%	22.7%	57.8%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	21.2%	22.7%	57.8%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	21.2%	22.7%	57.8%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	21.2%	22.7%	57.8%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	21.2%	22.7%	57.8%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	21.2%	22.7%	44.6%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	21.2%	22.7%	44.6%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	21.2%	22.7%	44.6%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	9.3%	22.7%	44.6%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	9.3%	22.7%	44.6%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	9.3%	22.7%	44.6%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	9.3%	22.7%	44.6%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:50+00:00	9.3%	22.7%	44.6%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	9.3%	22.7%	19.5%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	9.3%	22.7%	19.5%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	9.3%	22.7%	19.5%	15.3%	54.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00	50.7%	22.7%	19.5%	51.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	50.7%	22.7%	19.5%	51.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	50.7%	22.7%	19.5%	51.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	50.7%	22.7%	19.5%	51.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00	50.7%	22.7%	19.5%	51.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:54+00:00	50.7%	27.2%	26.0%	51.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	50.7%	27.2%	26.0%	51.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	50.7%	27.2%	26.0%	51.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	36.3%	27.2%	26.0%	51.8%	66.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	36.2%	27.2%	26.0%	51.8%	65.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	36.2%	27.9%	26.0%	51.8%	65.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	36.2%	27.9%	26.0%	51.8%	65.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	36.2%	27.9%	26.0%	51.8%	65.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	36.2%	27.9%	7.3%	51.8%	65.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	36.2%	27.9%	7.3%	51.8%	65.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	36.2%	27.9%	7.3%	51.8%	65.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	77.1%	27.9%	7.3%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	77.1%	27.9%	7.3%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	77.1%	27.9%	7.3%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	77.1%	27.9%	7.3%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	77.1%	27.9%	7.3%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	77.1%	27.9%	15.2%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	77.1%	27.9%	15.2%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	77.1%	27.9%	15.2%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	7.2%	27.9%	15.2%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	7.2%	27.9%	15.2%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	7.2%	27.9%	15.2%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00	7.2%	27.9%	15.2%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	7.2%	27.9%	15.2%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	7.2%	27.9%	7.3%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	7.2%	27.9%	7.3%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	7.2%	27.9%	7.3%	54.2%	68.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:56+00:00	6.2%	27.9%	7.3%	54.2%	47.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	6.2%	27.9%	7.3%	54.2%	47.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	6.2%	27.9%	7.3%	54.2%	47.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	6.2%	27.9%	7.3%	54.2%	47.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:38+00:00	6.2%	38.8%	20.4%	32.6%	47.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	6.2%	38.8%	20.4%	32.6%	47.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	6.2%	38.8%	20.4%	32.6%	47.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	6.2%	38.8%	20.4%	32.6%	47.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	47%	74.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	71.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	70.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	71.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	66.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗