— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
53¢
eps
44¢
hres
36¢
aifs
34¢
icon
33¢
wn2
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F2¢
56–57°F4¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F10¢
62–63°F13¢
64–65°F15¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F13¢
70–71°F10¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDSM-20261026-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape