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KDSM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
44%
HRES
36%
AIFS
34%
ICON
33%
WN2
24%
Consensus
34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 34.0¢Risks 34.00u
VS
WN2NO 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.00u · WN2 −66.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00AIFS Single: 33.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS HRES: 35.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00ICON: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:00ICON: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00ICON: 33.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:12+00:0033.8%44.2%23.8%35.5%33.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0033.8%44.2%23.8%35.5%33.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0033.8%44.2%23.8%35.5%33.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:0033.8%44.2%23.8%35.5%33.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:12+00:0033.8%44.2%23.8%35.5%33.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend53%71.0°F7.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble44%69.5°F6.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES36%68.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single34%68.1°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON33%66.2°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 224%66.6°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗