— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
95¢
aifs
87¢
rrfs
64¢
ndfd
56¢
eps
38¢
nbm
32¢
icon
31¢
hres
18¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F5¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F24¢
68–69°F26¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDTW-20261022-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-16T04:24:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape