KDTW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

87%

38%

32%

18%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.5¢Risks 56.50u

HRESNO 43.5¢Risks 43.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.50u · HRES −43.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:12+00:00	78.0%	35.6%	85.6%	39.6%	69.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	78.0%	35.6%	86.1%	39.6%	69.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	78.0%	35.6%	86.1%	39.6%	69.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	78.0%	35.6%	86.1%	39.6%	69.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	79.3%	35.6%	86.1%	39.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	79.3%	35.6%	86.1%	39.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	79.3%	35.6%	86.1%	39.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	79.3%	35.6%	86.1%	39.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	79.3%	35.6%	86.1%	39.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	79.3%	23.6%	88.1%	39.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	79.3%	23.6%	88.1%	39.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	79.3%	23.6%	88.1%	39.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:34+00:00	73.0%	23.6%	88.1%	36.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	72.9%	23.6%	88.1%	36.4%	51.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	72.9%	21.7%	88.1%	36.4%	51.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	72.9%	21.7%	88.1%	36.4%	51.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	72.9%	21.7%	88.1%	36.4%	51.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	72.9%	21.7%	93.0%	36.4%	51.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	72.9%	21.7%	93.0%	36.4%	51.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	72.9%	21.7%	93.0%	36.4%	51.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	64.4%	21.7%	93.0%	36.4%	49.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	64.4%	21.7%	93.0%	36.4%	49.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	64.4%	21.7%	93.0%	36.4%	49.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	64.4%	21.7%	93.0%	36.4%	49.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	64.4%	21.7%	93.0%	54.8%	49.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:32+00:00	64.4%	21.7%	85.8%	54.8%	49.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	64.4%	21.7%	85.8%	54.8%	49.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	64.4%	21.7%	85.8%	54.8%	49.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	65.8%	21.7%	85.8%	54.8%	49.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	65.8%	21.7%	85.8%	54.8%	49.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	65.8%	21.7%	85.8%	54.8%	49.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	65.8%	21.7%	85.8%	54.8%	49.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00	65.8%	21.7%	85.8%	54.8%	49.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	65.8%	21.7%	84.3%	54.8%	49.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	65.8%	21.7%	84.3%	54.8%	49.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	65.8%	21.7%	84.3%	54.8%	49.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00	76.6%	21.7%	84.3%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	76.6%	21.7%	84.3%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	76.6%	21.7%	84.3%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	76.6%	21.7%	84.3%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	76.6%	21.7%	84.3%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	76.6%	30.2%	80.3%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	76.6%	30.2%	80.3%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	76.6%	30.2%	80.3%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	76.6%	30.2%	80.3%	45.9%	28.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	76.6%	30.2%	80.3%	45.9%	28.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:05+00:00	75.4%	31.5%	72.8%	38.5%	26.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	75.4%	31.5%	81.6%	38.5%	26.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	75.4%	31.5%	81.6%	38.5%	26.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	75.4%	31.5%	81.6%	38.5%	26.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	75.4%	31.5%	81.6%	38.5%	26.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00	75.7%	31.5%	81.6%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	75.7%	31.5%	81.6%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	75.7%	31.5%	81.6%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	75.7%	31.5%	81.6%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	75.7%	27.6%	78.2%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	75.7%	27.6%	78.2%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:39+00:00	75.7%	27.6%	78.2%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	75.7%	27.6%	78.2%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	70.7%	27.6%	78.2%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:51+00:00	70.7%	27.6%	78.2%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	70.7%	25.2%	78.2%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	70.7%	25.2%	78.2%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	70.7%	25.2%	78.9%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	70.7%	25.2%	78.9%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	70.7%	25.2%	78.9%	30.2%	20.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	67.6%	25.2%	78.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	67.6%	25.2%	78.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	67.6%	25.2%	78.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	67.6%	25.2%	78.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	67.6%	25.2%	78.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	67.6%	25.2%	81.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	67.6%	25.2%	81.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	67.6%	25.2%	81.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	71.4%	25.2%	81.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	71.4%	25.2%	81.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:57+00:00	71.4%	25.2%	81.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	71.4%	25.2%	81.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:51+00:00	71.4%	25.2%	81.9%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	71.4%	25.2%	84.6%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	71.4%	25.2%	84.6%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	71.4%	25.2%	84.6%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00	74.4%	25.2%	84.6%	18.5%	45.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	74.4%	25.2%	84.6%	18.5%	45.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	74.4%	25.2%	84.6%	18.5%	45.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	74.4%	25.2%	84.6%	18.5%	45.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00	74.4%	25.2%	84.6%	18.5%	45.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:56+00:00	74.4%	27.2%	87.6%	18.5%	45.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	74.4%	27.2%	87.6%	18.5%	45.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	74.4%	27.2%	87.6%	18.5%	45.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	73.6%	27.2%	87.6%	18.5%	45.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	73.7%	27.2%	87.7%	18.5%	45.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00	82.6%	28.2%	82.2%	13.1%	49.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	82.6%	28.2%	82.2%	13.1%	49.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	82.6%	28.2%	92.8%	13.1%	49.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	82.6%	28.2%	92.8%	13.1%	49.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	82.6%	28.2%	92.8%	13.1%	49.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	86.7%	28.2%	92.8%	13.1%	30.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	86.7%	28.2%	92.8%	13.1%	30.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	86.7%	28.2%	92.8%	13.1%	30.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	86.7%	28.2%	92.8%	13.1%	30.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:39+00:00	86.7%	37.5%	94.7%	18.3%	30.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	86.7%	37.5%	94.7%	18.3%	30.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	86.7%	37.5%	94.7%	18.3%	30.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	86.7%	37.5%	94.7%	18.3%	30.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	86.7%	37.5%	94.7%	18.3%	31.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	72.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	72.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	66.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	66.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	65.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	63.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗