daily prop · Detroit, MI · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Thu Oct 22

Detroit runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Thu Oct 22

10¢

american +907 · decimal 10.07

on the tape

72°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 72°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		55¢
aifs		51¢
ndfd		23¢
rrfs		18¢
eps		8¢
icon		6¢
hres		3¢
nbm		3¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F5¢

64–65°F14¢

66–67°F25¢

68–69°F27¢

70–71°F18¢

72–73°F8¢

74–75°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,512 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.688 vs climatology 8.841.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDTW-20261022-TMAX-GE72 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:48+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape