KDTW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

51%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 29.1¢Risks 29.05u

HRESNO 71.0¢Risks 70.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.95u · HRES −70.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:48+00:00	69.1%	13.6%	55.2%	13.5%	14.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	69.1%	13.6%	55.2%	13.5%	14.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	69.1%	13.6%	55.2%	13.5%	14.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	69.1%	13.6%	55.2%	13.5%	14.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:57+00:00	69.1%	13.6%	55.2%	13.5%	14.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	69.1%	13.6%	54.0%	13.5%	14.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	69.1%	8.0%	54.0%	13.5%	14.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:22+00:00	69.1%	8.0%	54.0%	13.5%	14.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:51+00:00	70.7%	8.0%	53.9%	13.7%	14.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	70.7%	8.0%	53.9%	13.7%	14.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:13+00:00	70.7%	7.8%	53.9%	13.7%	14.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	70.7%	7.8%	53.9%	13.7%	14.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	70.7%	7.8%	66.8%	13.7%	14.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	70.7%	7.8%	66.8%	13.7%	14.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	70.7%	7.8%	66.8%	13.7%	14.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	70.7%	7.8%	66.8%	13.7%	14.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	66.8%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	66.8%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	66.8%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	66.8%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	60.9%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	60.9%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	60.9%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	60.9%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	60.9%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	60.9%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	60.9%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:13+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	60.9%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	61.6%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	61.6%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	52.8%	7.8%	61.6%	18.7%	54.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	53.0%	7.8%	61.6%	18.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	53.0%	7.8%	61.6%	18.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	53.0%	7.8%	61.6%	18.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	53.0%	7.8%	61.6%	18.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	53.0%	7.8%	61.6%	18.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	53.0%	2.7%	62.6%	18.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	53.0%	2.7%	62.6%	18.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	53.0%	2.7%	62.6%	18.7%	29.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:34+00:00	44.8%	2.7%	62.6%	17.0%	29.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	44.9%	2.7%	62.6%	17.0%	30.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	44.9%	2.4%	62.6%	17.0%	30.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	44.9%	2.3%	62.6%	17.0%	30.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	44.9%	2.3%	62.6%	17.0%	30.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	44.9%	2.3%	73.3%	17.0%	30.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	44.9%	2.3%	73.3%	17.0%	30.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	44.9%	2.3%	73.3%	17.0%	30.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	35.6%	2.3%	73.3%	17.0%	28.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	35.6%	2.3%	73.3%	17.0%	28.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	35.6%	2.3%	73.3%	17.0%	28.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	35.6%	2.3%	73.3%	17.0%	28.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	35.6%	2.3%	73.3%	31.4%	28.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:32+00:00	35.6%	2.3%	58.5%	31.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	35.6%	2.3%	58.5%	31.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	35.6%	2.3%	58.5%	31.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	37.0%	2.3%	58.5%	31.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	37.0%	2.3%	58.5%	31.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	37.0%	2.3%	58.5%	31.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	37.0%	2.3%	58.5%	31.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:51+00:00	37.0%	2.3%	58.5%	31.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	37.0%	2.3%	56.0%	31.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	37.0%	2.3%	56.0%	31.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	37.0%	2.3%	56.0%	31.4%	28.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00	46.8%	2.3%	56.0%	21.3%	10.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	46.8%	2.3%	56.0%	21.3%	10.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	46.8%	2.3%	56.0%	21.3%	10.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	46.8%	2.3%	56.0%	21.3%	10.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	46.8%	2.3%	56.0%	21.3%	10.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	46.8%	2.9%	45.2%	21.3%	10.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	46.8%	2.9%	45.2%	21.3%	10.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	46.8%	2.9%	45.2%	21.3%	10.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	46.8%	2.9%	45.2%	21.3%	10.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	46.8%	2.9%	45.2%	21.3%	11.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:05+00:00	45.2%	3.1%	35.8%	16.2%	10.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	45.2%	3.1%	47.1%	16.2%	10.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	45.2%	3.1%	47.1%	16.2%	10.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	45.2%	3.1%	47.1%	16.2%	10.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	45.2%	3.1%	47.1%	16.2%	10.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00	43.1%	3.1%	47.1%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	43.1%	3.1%	47.1%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	43.1%	3.1%	47.1%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	43.1%	3.1%	47.1%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	43.1%	3.3%	38.4%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	43.1%	3.3%	38.4%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:39+00:00	43.1%	3.3%	38.4%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	43.1%	3.3%	38.4%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	37.2%	3.3%	38.4%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:51+00:00	37.2%	3.3%	38.4%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	37.2%	3.0%	38.4%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	37.2%	3.0%	38.4%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	37.2%	3.0%	39.4%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	37.2%	3.0%	39.4%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	37.2%	3.0%	39.4%	9.3%	5.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	33.9%	3.0%	39.4%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	33.9%	3.0%	39.4%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	33.9%	3.0%	39.4%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	33.9%	3.0%	39.4%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	33.9%	3.0%	39.4%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	33.9%	3.0%	43.6%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	33.9%	3.0%	43.6%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	33.9%	3.0%	43.6%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	38.0%	3.0%	43.6%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	38.0%	3.0%	43.6%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:57+00:00	38.0%	3.0%	43.6%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	38.0%	3.0%	43.6%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:51+00:00	38.0%	3.0%	43.6%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	38.0%	3.0%	47.9%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	38.0%	3.0%	47.9%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	38.0%	3.0%	47.9%	5.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	47.9%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	47.9%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	47.9%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	47.9%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00	38.9%	3.0%	47.9%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:56+00:00	38.9%	3.5%	48.8%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	38.9%	3.5%	48.8%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	38.9%	3.5%	48.8%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	38.0%	3.5%	48.8%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	38.0%	3.5%	48.8%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	38.0%	3.7%	48.8%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	38.0%	3.7%	48.8%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	38.0%	3.7%	48.8%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	38.0%	3.7%	34.9%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	38.0%	3.7%	34.9%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	38.0%	3.7%	34.9%	3.6%	13.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	40.7%	3.7%	34.9%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00	40.7%	3.7%	34.9%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	40.7%	3.7%	34.9%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	40.7%	3.7%	34.9%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	40.7%	3.7%	34.9%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	40.7%	3.7%	39.4%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	40.7%	3.7%	39.4%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	40.7%	3.7%	39.4%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	50.0%	3.7%	39.4%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	50.0%	3.7%	39.4%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	50.0%	3.7%	39.4%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00	50.0%	3.7%	39.4%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	50.0%	3.7%	39.4%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	50.0%	3.7%	60.6%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	50.0%	3.7%	60.6%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	50.0%	3.7%	60.6%	2.2%	15.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	54.9%	3.7%	60.6%	2.2%	5.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	54.9%	3.7%	60.6%	2.2%	5.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	54.9%	3.7%	60.6%	2.2%	5.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	54.9%	3.7%	60.6%	2.2%	5.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:39+00:00	54.9%	6.9%	62.6%	3.0%	5.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	54.9%	6.9%	62.6%	3.0%	5.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	54.9%	6.9%	62.6%	3.0%	5.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	54.9%	6.9%	62.6%	3.0%	5.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	54.9%	6.9%	62.7%	3.0%	5.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	54.9%	6.9%	62.7%	3.0%	5.5%
2026-10-20T15:32:00+00:00	54.9%	7.7%	62.7%	3.0%	5.5%
2026-10-20T16:17:59+00:00	54.9%	7.7%	62.7%	3.0%	5.5%
2026-10-20T17:03:23+00:00	51.0%	7.7%	55.1%	3.0%	5.5%
2026-10-20T17:48:38+00:00	51.0%	7.7%	55.1%	3.0%	5.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	55%	71.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	71.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	66.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	65.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	63.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	66.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗