— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
97¢
wn2
97¢
aifs
95¢
icon
90¢
rrfs
89¢
hres
74¢
nbm
58¢
ndfd
56¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F7¢
62–63°F19¢
64–65°F28¢
66–67°F25¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,564 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.687 vs climatology 8.826.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape