KDTW / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 21 · 15:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

97%

95%

90%

74%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.8¢Risks 85.80u

HRESNO 14.2¢Risks 14.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.20u · HRES −14.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T15:53:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:51+00:00	94.0%	81.2%	94.3%	41.1%	69.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	94.0%	81.2%	95.8%	41.1%	69.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	94.0%	81.2%	95.8%	41.1%	69.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	94.0%	81.2%	95.8%	41.1%	69.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00	96.1%	81.2%	95.8%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	96.1%	81.2%	95.8%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	96.1%	81.2%	95.8%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	96.1%	81.2%	95.8%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00	96.1%	81.2%	95.8%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:56+00:00	96.1%	74.5%	99.1%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	96.1%	74.5%	99.1%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	96.1%	74.5%	99.1%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	80.8%	74.5%	99.1%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	80.9%	74.5%	99.1%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:32+00:00	80.9%	76.1%	99.1%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	80.9%	76.1%	99.1%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	80.9%	76.1%	99.1%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	80.9%	76.1%	96.0%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	80.9%	76.1%	96.0%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	80.9%	76.1%	96.0%	26.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	81.5%	76.1%	96.0%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00	81.5%	76.1%	96.0%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	81.5%	76.1%	96.0%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	81.5%	76.1%	96.0%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	81.5%	76.1%	96.0%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	81.5%	76.1%	96.6%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	81.5%	76.1%	96.6%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	81.5%	76.1%	96.6%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	88.5%	76.1%	96.6%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	88.5%	76.1%	96.6%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	88.5%	76.1%	96.6%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00	88.5%	76.1%	96.6%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	88.5%	76.1%	96.6%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	88.5%	76.1%	97.8%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	88.5%	76.1%	97.8%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	88.5%	76.1%	97.8%	13.1%	42.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	92.7%	76.1%	97.8%	13.1%	32.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	92.7%	76.1%	97.8%	13.1%	32.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	92.7%	76.1%	97.8%	13.1%	32.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	92.7%	76.1%	97.8%	13.1%	32.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:39+00:00	92.7%	79.6%	97.3%	47.3%	32.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	92.7%	79.6%	97.3%	47.3%	32.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	92.7%	79.6%	97.3%	47.3%	32.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	92.7%	79.6%	97.3%	47.3%	32.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	92.8%	79.6%	97.3%	47.3%	32.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	92.8%	79.6%	97.3%	47.3%	32.6%
2026-10-20T15:32:00+00:00	92.8%	81.0%	97.3%	47.3%	32.6%
2026-10-20T16:17:59+00:00	92.8%	81.0%	97.3%	47.3%	32.6%
2026-10-20T17:03:23+00:00	90.6%	81.0%	95.5%	47.3%	32.6%
2026-10-20T17:48:38+00:00	90.6%	81.0%	95.5%	47.3%	32.6%
2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00	90.6%	81.0%	95.5%	47.3%	32.6%
2026-10-20T19:18:55+00:00	90.6%	81.0%	95.5%	47.3%	32.6%
2026-10-20T20:04:09+00:00	90.6%	81.0%	95.5%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-20T20:49:25+00:00	90.6%	81.0%	95.5%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-20T21:34:33+00:00	90.6%	81.0%	95.5%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-20T22:19:40+00:00	90.6%	81.0%	95.5%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-20T23:04:47+00:00	97.0%	81.0%	98.4%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-20T23:50:04+00:00	97.0%	81.0%	98.4%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-21T00:35:14+00:00	97.0%	81.0%	98.4%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-21T01:20:47+00:00	97.0%	81.0%	98.4%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-21T02:06:16+00:00	97.0%	81.0%	98.4%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-21T02:51:42+00:00	97.0%	81.0%	98.4%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-21T03:36:55+00:00	97.0%	81.0%	98.4%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-21T04:22:54+00:00	97.0%	81.0%	98.4%	38.3%	76.7%
2026-10-21T05:09:05+00:00	95.3%	81.0%	98.4%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-21T05:54:16+00:00	95.3%	81.0%	98.4%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-21T06:39:26+00:00	95.3%	81.0%	98.4%	42.9%	76.7%
2026-10-21T07:25:21+00:00	95.3%	81.0%	98.4%	74.5%	90.2%
2026-10-21T08:11:48+00:00	95.3%	81.0%	98.4%	74.5%	90.2%
2026-10-21T08:57:16+00:00	95.3%	81.0%	98.4%	74.5%	90.2%
2026-10-21T09:42:34+00:00	95.3%	81.0%	98.4%	74.5%	90.2%
2026-10-21T10:27:56+00:00	94.6%	81.0%	98.4%	74.5%	90.2%
2026-10-21T11:13:25+00:00	94.6%	96.9%	97.0%	74.5%	90.2%
2026-10-21T11:58:57+00:00	94.6%	96.9%	97.0%	74.5%	90.2%
2026-10-21T12:44:08+00:00	94.6%	96.9%	97.0%	74.5%	90.2%
2026-10-21T13:29:38+00:00	94.6%	96.9%	97.0%	74.5%	90.2%
2026-10-21T14:22:57+00:00	94.7%	97.2%	97.0%	74.5%	90.2%
2026-10-21T15:08:07+00:00	94.7%	97.4%	97.0%	74.5%	90.2%
2026-10-21T15:53:17+00:00	94.7%	97.1%	97.0%	74.5%	90.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	67.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	67.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	68.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	90%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	64.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	62.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-21 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗