daily prop · Detroit, MI · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Sat Oct 24

Detroit runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Sat Oct 24

3¢

american +3761 · decimal 38.61

on the tape

72°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 72°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		40¢
aifs		25¢
icon		5¢
nbm		3¢
ndfd		2¢
hres		1¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

56–57°F2¢

58–59°F6¢

60–61°F12¢

62–63°F19¢

64–65°F22¢

66–67°F19¢

68–69°F12¢

70–71°F6¢

72–73°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDTW-20261024-TMAX-GE72 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape