KDTW / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

25%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 20.4¢Risks 20.35u

EPSNO 79.7¢Risks 79.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +79.65u · EPS −79.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00	26.0%	9.5%	48.5%	5.5%	11.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	26.0%	9.5%	48.5%	5.5%	11.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	26.0%	9.5%	48.5%	5.5%	11.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	26.0%	9.5%	48.5%	5.5%	11.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	26.0%	9.5%	48.5%	5.5%	11.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	26.0%	2.6%	39.2%	5.5%	11.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	26.0%	2.6%	39.2%	5.5%	11.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	26.0%	2.6%	39.2%	5.5%	11.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	16.9%	2.6%	39.2%	5.5%	11.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	16.9%	2.6%	39.2%	5.5%	12.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00	16.9%	2.4%	39.2%	5.5%	12.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	16.9%	2.4%	39.2%	5.5%	12.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	16.9%	2.4%	28.5%	5.5%	12.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	16.9%	2.4%	28.5%	5.5%	12.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	16.9%	2.4%	28.5%	5.5%	12.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	16.9%	2.4%	28.5%	5.5%	12.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	28.5%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	28.5%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	28.5%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	28.5%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	17.9%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	17.9%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	17.9%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	12.9%	2.4%	17.9%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	15.2%	2.4%	17.9%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	15.2%	2.4%	17.9%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	15.2%	2.4%	17.9%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:07+00:00	15.2%	2.4%	17.9%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	15.2%	2.4%	19.5%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	15.2%	2.4%	19.5%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	15.2%	2.4%	19.5%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	15.2%	2.4%	19.5%	7.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00	13.0%	2.4%	19.5%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	13.0%	2.4%	19.5%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	13.0%	2.4%	19.5%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	13.0%	2.4%	19.5%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	13.0%	0.9%	16.8%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	13.0%	0.9%	16.8%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:39+00:00	13.0%	0.9%	16.8%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	13.0%	0.9%	16.8%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	13.0%	1.0%	16.8%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:51+00:00	13.0%	1.0%	16.8%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	13.0%	0.8%	16.8%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	13.0%	0.8%	16.8%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	13.0%	0.8%	16.8%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	13.0%	0.8%	16.8%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	13.0%	0.8%	16.8%	1.2%	12.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	16.4%	0.8%	16.8%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	16.4%	0.8%	16.8%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	16.4%	0.8%	16.8%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	16.4%	0.8%	16.8%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	16.4%	0.8%	16.8%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	16.4%	0.8%	28.9%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	16.4%	0.8%	28.9%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	16.4%	0.8%	28.9%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	18.7%	0.8%	28.9%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	18.7%	0.8%	28.9%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:57+00:00	18.7%	0.8%	28.9%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	18.7%	0.8%	28.9%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:53+00:00	18.7%	0.8%	28.9%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	18.7%	0.8%	32.6%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	18.7%	0.8%	32.6%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	18.7%	0.8%	32.6%	3.7%	23.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00	21.0%	0.8%	32.6%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	21.0%	0.8%	32.6%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	21.0%	0.8%	32.6%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	21.0%	0.8%	32.6%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00	21.0%	0.8%	32.6%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:56+00:00	21.0%	0.5%	49.0%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	21.0%	0.5%	49.0%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	21.0%	0.5%	49.0%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	9.5%	0.5%	49.0%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	9.4%	0.5%	49.0%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00	9.4%	0.5%	49.0%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	9.4%	0.5%	49.0%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	9.4%	0.5%	49.0%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	9.4%	0.5%	37.6%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	9.4%	0.5%	37.6%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	9.4%	0.5%	37.6%	1.1%	10.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	11.6%	0.5%	37.6%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00	11.6%	0.5%	37.6%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	11.6%	0.5%	37.6%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	11.6%	0.5%	37.6%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	11.6%	0.5%	37.6%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	11.6%	0.5%	42.3%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	11.6%	0.5%	42.3%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	11.6%	0.5%	42.3%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	16.1%	0.5%	42.3%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	16.1%	0.5%	42.3%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	16.1%	0.5%	42.3%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00	16.1%	0.5%	42.3%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	16.1%	0.5%	42.3%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	16.1%	0.5%	38.5%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	16.1%	0.5%	38.5%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	16.1%	0.5%	38.5%	0.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	24.9%	0.5%	38.5%	0.6%	4.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	24.9%	0.5%	38.5%	0.6%	4.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	24.9%	0.5%	38.5%	0.6%	4.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	24.9%	0.5%	38.5%	0.6%	4.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:39+00:00	24.9%	0.3%	40.4%	1.1%	4.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	24.9%	0.3%	40.4%	1.1%	4.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	24.9%	0.3%	40.4%	1.1%	4.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	24.9%	0.3%	40.4%	1.1%	4.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	40%	70.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	68.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	63.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	63.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	60.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	61.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261024-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗