daily prop · Newark, NJ · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sun Oct 18

Newark high ≥ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

YES

settled · observed 60

longshot hit whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 55°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 8¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		96¢
icon		92¢
hres		92¢
aifs		89¢
eps		84¢
nbm		67¢
ndfd		53¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-GE55 · opened 2026-10-12T04:00:52+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:39:01+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape