KEWR / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

92%

89%

84%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 90.1¢Risks 45.07u

EPSNO 9.9¢Risks 4.93u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.93u · EPS −4.93u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:00:52+00:00	98.2%	77.2%	92.4%	84.4%	83.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:12+00:00	98.2%	77.2%	92.4%	84.4%	83.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:18+00:00	98.2%	77.2%	95.3%	84.4%	83.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:26+00:00	98.2%	77.2%	95.3%	84.4%	83.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	98.2%	77.2%	95.3%	84.4%	83.5%
2026-10-12T07:47:40+00:00	96.2%	77.2%	95.3%	91.7%	92.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:20+00:00	96.2%	77.2%	95.3%	91.7%	92.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00	96.2%	77.2%	95.3%	91.7%	92.5%
2026-10-12T10:04:51+00:00	96.2%	77.2%	95.3%	91.7%	92.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	96.2%	77.2%	95.3%	91.7%	92.5%
2026-10-12T11:35:18+00:00	96.2%	77.2%	96.2%	91.7%	92.5%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00	96.2%	84.5%	96.2%	91.7%	92.5%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	96.2%	84.5%	96.2%	91.7%	92.5%
2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00	89.0%	84.5%	96.2%	91.7%	92.5%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00	89.0%	84.1%	96.2%	91.7%	92.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	62.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0014
ICON	92%	64.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0056
IFS HRES	92%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0069
AIFS Single	89%	61.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0121
IFS Ensemble	84%	59.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0253
National Blend	67%	57.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1063
NWS forecast	53%	55.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗