— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
94¢
aifs
86¢
eps
79¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
55¢
hres
39¢
rrfs
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F3¢
60–61°F11¢
62–63°F25¢
64–65°F31¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F8¢
70–71°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KEWR-20261021-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape