KEWR / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

86%

79%

55%

39%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

HRESNO 33.5¢Risks 33.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.55u · HRES −33.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	75.0%	94.4%	74.9%	47.6%	51.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	75.0%	94.4%	80.5%	47.6%	51.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	75.0%	94.4%	80.5%	47.6%	51.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	75.0%	94.4%	80.5%	47.6%	51.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	75.0%	94.4%	80.5%	47.6%	51.6%
2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:00	61.9%	94.4%	80.5%	35.2%	67.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	61.9%	94.4%	80.5%	35.2%	67.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	61.9%	94.4%	80.5%	35.2%	67.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	61.9%	94.4%	80.5%	35.2%	67.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	61.9%	81.6%	78.8%	35.2%	67.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	61.9%	81.6%	78.8%	35.2%	67.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	61.9%	81.6%	78.8%	35.2%	67.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	61.9%	81.6%	78.8%	35.2%	67.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	68.9%	80.8%	78.8%	35.2%	67.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	68.9%	80.8%	78.8%	35.2%	67.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	78.8%	35.2%	67.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	78.8%	35.2%	67.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	80.5%	35.2%	67.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	80.5%	35.2%	67.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	80.5%	35.2%	67.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	67.2%	75.3%	80.5%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	67.2%	75.3%	80.5%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	67.2%	75.3%	80.5%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	67.2%	75.3%	80.5%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	67.2%	75.3%	80.5%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	67.2%	75.3%	70.3%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	67.2%	75.3%	70.3%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	67.2%	75.3%	70.3%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	70.3%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	70.3%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	70.3%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	70.3%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	70.3%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	85.0%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	85.0%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	68.9%	75.3%	85.0%	38.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00	85.0%	75.3%	85.0%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	85.0%	75.3%	85.0%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	85.0%	75.3%	85.0%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	85.0%	75.3%	85.0%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00	85.0%	75.3%	85.0%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	85.0%	78.1%	94.7%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00	85.0%	78.1%	94.7%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00	85.0%	78.1%	94.7%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	81.2%	78.1%	94.7%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	81.4%	78.1%	94.7%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:11+00:00	81.4%	79.0%	94.7%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:04+00:00	81.4%	79.0%	94.7%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00	81.4%	79.0%	94.7%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	81.4%	79.0%	93.9%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	81.4%	79.0%	93.9%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	81.4%	79.0%	93.9%	38.5%	60.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:24+00:00	83.3%	79.0%	93.9%	39.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	83.3%	79.0%	93.9%	39.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	83.3%	79.0%	93.9%	39.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	83.3%	79.0%	93.9%	39.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	83.3%	79.0%	93.9%	39.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	83.3%	79.0%	93.5%	39.4%	54.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:39+00:00	83.3%	79.0%	93.5%	39.4%	54.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:31+00:00	83.3%	79.0%	93.5%	39.4%	54.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	85.6%	79.0%	93.5%	39.4%	54.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	85.6%	79.0%	93.5%	39.4%	54.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	85.6%	79.0%	93.5%	39.4%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	66.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	65.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	64.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	55%	61.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	60.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗