— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
90¢
aifs
82¢
nbm
59¢
hres
58¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
53¢
eps
42¢
rrfs
41¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F9¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F30¢
70–71°F24¢
72–73°F11¢
74–75°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KEWR-20261022-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-19T15:13:11+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape