KEWR / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

82%

58%

55%

42%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.8¢Risks 65.80u

EPSNO 34.2¢Risks 34.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.20u · EPS −34.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:11+00:00	72.9%	37.0%	85.8%	40.3%	54.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	72.9%	37.0%	85.8%	40.3%	54.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00	72.9%	37.0%	85.8%	40.3%	54.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	72.9%	37.0%	83.0%	40.3%	54.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	72.9%	37.0%	83.0%	40.3%	54.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	72.9%	37.0%	83.0%	40.3%	54.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:24+00:00	75.9%	37.0%	83.0%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	75.9%	37.0%	83.0%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	75.9%	37.0%	83.0%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	75.9%	37.0%	83.0%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	75.9%	37.0%	83.0%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	75.9%	37.0%	84.4%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:39+00:00	75.9%	37.0%	84.4%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:31+00:00	75.9%	37.0%	84.4%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	78.8%	37.0%	84.4%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	78.8%	37.0%	84.4%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	78.8%	37.0%	84.4%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-20T04:03:27+00:00	78.8%	37.0%	84.4%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00	78.8%	37.0%	84.4%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	78.8%	37.0%	86.5%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	78.8%	37.0%	86.5%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00	78.8%	37.0%	86.5%	32.7%	53.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	82.0%	37.0%	86.5%	32.7%	53.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	82.0%	37.0%	86.5%	32.7%	53.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00	82.0%	37.0%	86.5%	32.7%	53.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	82.0%	37.0%	86.5%	32.7%	53.4%
2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00	82.0%	41.9%	89.6%	57.7%	53.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00	82.0%	41.9%	89.6%	57.7%	53.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	82.0%	41.9%	89.6%	57.7%	53.4%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	82.0%	41.9%	89.6%	57.7%	53.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	82.0%	41.9%	89.7%	57.7%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	71.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	71.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	68.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	55%	67.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	66.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗