— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
93¢
aifs
88¢
icon
72¢
hres
66¢
nbm
55¢
eps
39¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F18¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F9¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F2¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KEWR-20261026-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape