KEWR / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

88%

72%

66%

39%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

EPSNO 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.00u · EPS −34.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00	89.8%	28.5%	90.6%	66.8%	27.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	89.8%	28.5%	90.6%	66.8%	27.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	89.8%	28.5%	90.6%	66.8%	27.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	89.8%	28.5%	90.6%	66.8%	27.1%
2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00	89.8%	28.5%	90.6%	66.8%	27.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	89.8%	37.9%	90.2%	66.8%	27.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00	89.8%	37.9%	90.2%	66.8%	27.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00	89.8%	37.9%	90.2%	66.8%	27.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	87.8%	37.9%	90.2%	66.8%	27.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	87.8%	37.9%	90.2%	66.8%	27.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	87.8%	38.6%	90.2%	66.8%	27.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	87.8%	38.6%	90.2%	66.8%	27.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00	87.8%	38.6%	90.2%	66.8%	27.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	87.8%	38.6%	91.5%	66.8%	27.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	87.8%	38.6%	91.5%	66.8%	27.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	87.8%	38.6%	91.5%	66.8%	27.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:24+00:00	91.3%	38.6%	91.5%	65.7%	72.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	91.3%	38.6%	91.5%	65.7%	72.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	91.3%	38.6%	91.5%	65.7%	72.5%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	91.3%	38.6%	91.5%	65.7%	72.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	91.3%	38.6%	91.5%	65.7%	72.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	91.3%	38.6%	93.4%	65.7%	72.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:39+00:00	91.3%	38.6%	93.4%	65.7%	72.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:31+00:00	91.3%	38.6%	93.4%	65.7%	72.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	87.8%	38.6%	93.4%	65.7%	72.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	87.8%	38.6%	93.4%	65.7%	72.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	87.8%	38.6%	93.4%	65.7%	72.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	75.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	74.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	72%	73.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	70.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	66.4°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261026-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗