daily prop · Newark, NJ · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Mon Oct 26

Newark runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon Oct 26

30¢

american +233 · decimal 3.33

on the tape

74°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 74°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		66¢
icon		59¢
aifs		57¢
ndfd		34¢
hres		26¢
nbm		15¢
eps		8¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F2¢

64–65°F5¢

66–67°F10¢

68–69°F15¢

70–71°F18¢

72–73°F18¢

74–75°F14¢

76–77°F9¢

78–79°F4¢

80–81°F2¢

82–83°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KEWR-20261026-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape