KEWR / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 20 · 13:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

59%

57%

26%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

EPSNO 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.10u · EPS −63.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00	58.9%	2.7%	58.7%	31.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	58.9%	2.7%	58.7%	31.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	58.9%	2.7%	58.7%	31.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	58.9%	2.7%	58.7%	31.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00	58.9%	2.7%	58.7%	31.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	58.9%	3.2%	54.7%	31.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00	58.9%	3.2%	54.7%	31.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00	58.9%	3.2%	54.7%	31.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	54.8%	3.2%	54.7%	31.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	54.9%	3.2%	54.7%	31.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	54.7%	31.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	54.7%	31.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	54.7%	31.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	57.8%	31.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	57.8%	31.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	57.8%	31.0%	11.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:24+00:00	62.3%	3.1%	57.8%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	62.3%	3.1%	57.8%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	62.3%	3.1%	57.8%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	62.3%	3.1%	57.8%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	62.3%	3.1%	57.8%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	62.3%	3.1%	63.1%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:39+00:00	62.3%	3.1%	63.1%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:31+00:00	62.3%	3.1%	63.1%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	63.1%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	63.1%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	63.1%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-20T04:03:31+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	63.1%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	63.1%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	55.5%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	55.5%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00	54.9%	3.1%	55.5%	29.9%	50.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	57.3%	3.1%	55.5%	29.9%	59.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	57.3%	3.1%	55.5%	29.9%	59.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00	57.3%	3.1%	55.5%	29.9%	59.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	57.3%	3.1%	55.5%	29.9%	59.4%
2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00	57.3%	8.0%	65.8%	26.2%	59.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00	57.3%	8.0%	65.8%	26.2%	59.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	57.3%	8.0%	65.8%	26.2%	59.4%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	57.3%	8.0%	65.8%	26.2%	59.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	66%	75.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	75.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	74.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	34%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	69.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	67.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗