— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
53¢
eps
42¢
icon
25¢
hres
10¢
aifs
3¢
wn2
3¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F20¢
80–81°F16¢
82–83°F10¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F2¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,003 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.474 vs climatology 8.892.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape