KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

25%

10%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 22.1¢Risks 22.15u

WN2NO 77.8¢Risks 77.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +77.85u · WN2 −77.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:13+00:00	6.1%	51.3%	9.1%	25.6%	47.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	6.1%	51.3%	9.1%	25.6%	47.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	6.1%	51.3%	9.5%	25.6%	47.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	6.1%	51.3%	9.5%	25.6%	47.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	6.1%	51.3%	9.5%	25.6%	47.7%
2026-10-13T08:03:57+00:00	5.4%	51.3%	9.5%	11.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	5.4%	51.3%	9.5%	11.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	5.4%	51.3%	9.5%	11.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	5.4%	51.3%	9.5%	11.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	5.4%	51.3%	9.5%	11.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	5.4%	42.6%	2.1%	11.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	5.4%	42.6%	2.1%	11.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	5.4%	42.6%	2.1%	11.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	4.5%	42.6%	2.2%	11.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	4.5%	42.6%	2.2%	11.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:48+00:00	4.5%	41.7%	2.2%	11.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	4.5%	41.7%	2.2%	11.6%	21.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	4.5%	41.7%	1.7%	11.6%	21.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	4.5%	41.7%	1.7%	11.6%	21.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	4.5%	41.7%	1.7%	11.6%	21.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	4.5%	41.7%	1.7%	11.6%	21.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	5.3%	41.7%	1.7%	11.6%	24.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	5.3%	41.7%	1.7%	11.6%	24.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	5.3%	41.7%	1.7%	11.6%	24.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	5.3%	41.7%	1.7%	11.6%	24.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	5.3%	41.7%	2.6%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	5.3%	41.7%	2.6%	9.7%	24.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	5.3%	41.7%	2.6%	9.7%	24.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	3.0%	41.7%	2.6%	9.7%	24.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	3.0%	41.7%	2.6%	9.7%	24.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	3.0%	41.7%	2.6%	9.7%	24.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	84.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	82.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	79.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	76.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	74.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗